Global refinery outages are surging, raising concerns about product supply and refining margins in the months ahead. According to Kpler data, refinery downtime reached 7.8 million barrels per day in September 2025, with projections suggesting it could rise to 8.5 million bpd in October. The increase is being driven by a combination of seasonal turnaround maintenance and unplanned disruptions, particularly in Russia, where drone attacks have crippled refining assets.

In the U.S., refiners are running near full capacity to capture robust margins, though some easing is expected with upcoming maintenance. Meanwhile, Mexico has reported significant downtime due to both outages and power issues. Europe and the Middle East are also bracing for heavier maintenance in Q4, which may further reduce throughput. Despite this, margins remain firm, especially for distillates like diesel and jet fuel, due to constrained global availability.

The sharp rise in outages points to a refining market entering a phase of tight balance, where supply-side risks can rapidly amplify pricing volatility. Traders and refiners alike are adapting with higher utilization runs and hedging strategies to offset disruptions.