Russia’s Novorossiisk oil export hub is nearing capacity limits, even as it handles record volumes of crude. In September, exports through the port and Transneft pipelines reached ~0.8 million barrels per day, driving Russia’s total export volumes to a five-year peak of 2.5 million bpd. October flows are projected around 0.73 million bpd.

However, the port’s ability to absorb further throughput is now constrained by existing pipeline strain, drone attacks that damage transfer infrastructure, and heightened storm risks complicating shipping.

With many Russian refineries forced offline by attacks or maintenance, excess crude is being pushed toward export routes, intensifying pressure on terminal resilience. Traders are watching alternate ports (Primorsk, Ust-Luga) but rerouting is complex and costly. Novorossiisk’s bottleneck signals a new inflection point in Russia’s seaborne crude logistics.