Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes have caused an estimated 20% drop in Russia’s refining throughput, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who confirmed attacks on multiple refinery sites deep inside Russian territory.Among the hardest hit are backed-up units processing Urals and ESPO crude, which now face outages from damaged coker and hydrocracker trains.

The disruption has squeezed Russia’s exportable petrol and diesel volumes, adding fresh logistical pressure on terminals and tanker fleets. Global refiners reliant on Russian barrels are weighing alternative grades or incurring higher freight and blending costs, while shipping lines face route congestion and insurance uncertainty. For industry players, this surge in refining risk emphasises how feedstock origin and infrastructure resilience are now as critical as crude pricing.

If disruptions persist, product supply tightness and margin volatility may spread beyond Russia into Europe and Asia.